North Carolina’s Drought Management Advisory Council (DMAC) has expanded its Severe Drought category (D2 classification) for parts of 15 counties as of Oct. 31. Impacted counties include Burke, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Gaston, Graham, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain and Transylvania. Severe drought is the second category of the four drought classifications based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. An additional 57 counties in western North Carolina are considered to be in Moderate Drought category (D1 classification).
Most of the state is experiencing dry conditions based on factors including streamflow, groundwater levels, reservoir levels, soil moisture and fire danger. Rainfall deficits of 4 to 10 inches have developed in western North Carolina since the beginning of September. Eastern North Carolina benefited from rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia, but has also seen little rainfall since.
"This is one of the top five driest September and October periods on record for much of western North Carolina,” said Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist with the NC State Climate Office. “Since Sept. 1, Charlotte has had only 1.86 inches of rain, which is the driest start to fall there since 1961. In southern mountain locations such as Asheville and Murphy, the last time it was this dry at this time of year was in 2016, which was part of a memorably extreme and impactful drought. As the weeks with little to no rain continue to stack up, we're seeing that reflected on the drought map, with more than 50% of the state now classified in Moderate or Severe Drought.”
The lack of rainfall has had the largest impact on streamflow and reservoir levels, said Klaus Albertin, chair of the DMAC.
“Fortunately, the period of highest demand for public water supplies and agriculture is past,” Albertin said. “However, nearly 30 % of streamgages are flowing below the 10th percentile for a 28-day average. Jordan Lake and Falls Lake are below their target levels and had 62 percent and 54 percent, respectively, of their water quality pool remaining as of October 30. The Roanoke River is seeing a salt wedge migrating inland due to reduced streamflow. The forecast for the next week shows little chance of rain, so conditions statewide are likely to gradually worsen. We are entering an El Niño pattern which usually brings cool, wet weather to the Southeast, so we are hoping to see conditions improve by mid-winter.”
DMAC’s drought map is updated weekly on Thursday. The next update will be on Nov. 9.
To learn more, visit https://www.ncdrought.org/education.