Hazard Forecasts

Sea level rise report and FAQs:

• NC 2015 Sea Level Rise Assessment Report: Developed by the Coastal Resources Commission Science Panel, the report describes the 30-year sea level rise projections. The report will be updated for 2020 as part of the 5-year update cycle.
• NOAA Explainer - Tracking Sea Level Rise and Fall: Learn the facts about how and why sea level changes.

Interactive Mapping:

• NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer: View local sea level rise scenarios and relative depth as well as the potential for marsh migration, social vulnerability and high tide flooding.
• The Nature Conservancy Coastal Resilience Mapping Portal: Identify potential inundation during coastal storms from wind, storm surge, and future flood risk based on sea-level rise predictions.

Generate a local 2-page SLR report:

• NOAA Sentinel Site Cooperative Program SLR Two Pager: Follow the easy four-step process to create a two-page briefing on local sea level rise scenarios and related days of future high-tide or nuisance flooding. 

Historical relative sea level rise trend for Beaufort, North Carolina: 3.04 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1953 to 2017

Source: NOAA Tides and Currents

Sea level rise and more extreme rainfall events are leading to higher high tides and in some cases record high stream and river levels. Monitor real-time information and forecasts to stay aware of potential flooding in your area:

Monitoring Tools:

• NC Flooding Inundation Mapping Alert Network (FIMAN): Monitor weather radar and all stream, sound and river gauges to find out if flooding is expected in your community. Users can also look at scenarios of varying flood severity and the associated extent of potential building damage and community impacts.
• NC Tides (NOAA): View details on coming tidal cycles for your location.

Engage the Community with Citizen Science:

• NC King Tides Project: View records and pictures of recent king tide (highest annual tide) events and learn how you can contribute to the citizen science effort.
• NOAA's What's Your Water Level Story Map: Explore observations and stories of high water levels in North Carolina and nationwide.

View and consider bookmarking any of the following trusted sources for information regarding tropical storm and hurricane forecasts and impacts. 

• National Hurricane Center: Get the latest information about tropical storm and hurricane development and track from a trusted source.
• National Weather Service Local Offices: View latest watches and warnings as well as more detailed weather briefings about hurricanes and other hazards for your area.
  • Wilmington, NC
  • Newport/Morehead City, NC
  • Wakefield, VA
  • Raleigh, NC
• NC SeaGrant Hurricane Resources: Monitor the online and social media platforms for local, state, and federal weather and emergency management agencies for updates.
• Coastal Emergency Risk Assessment ADCIRC Storm Surge Forecast (DHS, NOAA, UNC IMS, and many other groups): view the real-time prediction for hurricane storm surge flooding.

For information specific to disaster recovery assistance and timelines, communities should refer to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management's sites for Matthew, Florence, and Rebuild NC as well as the FEMA website for Florence.

Understanding how weather and climate affect our everyday activities and long-term planning decisions begins with a robust monitoring network and data collection system. View below a portal for marine weather and ocean observations data for coastal North Carolina.

• Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS): This national-regional partnerships collects, monitors, and analyzes data along the coasts and in the Great Lakes region to improve safety, enhance the economy and protect the environment.
  • Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) Marine Weather Portal: The data portal helps meet the marine weather and forecasting needs of boaters, mariners, and beachgoers in the southeast through 24/7 access to real-time ocean data, marine forecast and hazards products and models.

"Drought conditions sometimes develop after a period of above average amounts of rainfall over an extended area. When this happens, the wet conditions have encouraged more plants and trees to grow and to gain nutrients. These new plants and shallow-rooted trees are the first to start to wilt when dry conditions begin.   If the dry conditions persist, a drought can develop, leading to conditions favorable for wildfires as all the excess dried-out vegetation provides ample fuel for the fires." (NC State Climate Office)

Drought

• NC Drought Monitoring (NC Division of Water Resources)
  • NC Drought Management Advisory Council: View current advisories/maps, descriptions of classifications and response actions
  • Coastal Carolinas Drought Early Warning System: Explore conditions, forecasts and other information at a regional level.

Wildfire

• Wildfire/Emergency Response Situation Report (NC Forest Service): view the current status of wildfires in the state as well as monthly summaries
• CISA Fire in Coastal Carolinas Story Map: Highlights peat soils, coastal fire events, and the monitoring of wildfire risk. It was developed by the Coastal Carolinas DEWS (Drought Early Warning System), a collaborative federal, state, and local interagency effort to improve early warning capacity and resilience to drought.